Air Cargo This Week: November 2, 2026

Rates kept climbing in late October while tonnage slipped. WorldACD put the global spot rate at $3.80/kg in week 43, up 5% on the week and 38% on the year, and Asia Pacific to US spot reached $7.43/kg. Freightos had China to North America up 4% at $7.13/kg and China to Europe up 12% at $4.35/kg, and the Baltic Air Freight Index added 3.9% to 2,775. Jet fuel fell for the first time since our October 14 edition, by 2.6% to $191.54 a barrel, though it still costs 112.8% more than a year ago. Taiwan press counted 97 charters out of Taiwan in October, about nine in ten of them to the US, and forwarders expect 40% to 50% fewer in November as holiday goods take the space. In Europe, the €2 handling fee started on November 1, and the Commission says Q3 parcel imports ran more than 60% below the pre-duty trend.

Arrows show the direction each source reports: ▲ up, ▼ down, ▬ flat or no new reading. Broker, forwarder, airline and press commentary is marked as reported.

Fuel

Brent slipped only 0.5% while the jet crack spread narrowed 6.0%, so jet fuel fell faster than crude. The global average was still 3.8% above the prior month's average, and the gap to last year narrowed from 118.5% a week earlier (IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, week ending Oct 30). IATA's monthly data show jet fuel rose 17.5% in September and was 103.4% above a year earlier (IATA, Oct 29). Reported: Taiwan forwarders say carriers have not yet announced a change to the NT$77/kg long-haul fuel surcharge, and they expect an increase by mid-November at current oil prices (ETtoday, Nov 2).

Volume trending

Our read is that the week 43 dip came from holidays in India and Sri Lanka and the typhoon that grounded flights in Taiwan. Over two weeks, worldwide chargeable weight is still up 3%, and IATA's 7.7% demand growth in September was well ahead of August. Asia to North America grew for an eighth straight month, while Europe to Middle East fell 18.0% (IATA, Oct 29). Reported: Rotate's chief executive Ryan Keyrouse told TIACA's Air Cargo Forum that monthly cloud computing air volumes from Asia Pacific peaked just under 100,000 tonnes in April and were around 85,000 tonnes in August (Air Cargo News, Oct 28). Rotate forecasts global demand growth of 3.1% in Q4 2026 and 5.1% in the first half of 2027 (The Loadstar, Oct 29).

Rate indices

WorldACD's full-market rate for the five weeks to October 25 ran $3.12, $3.12, $3.09, $3.22 and $3.33/kg, against $2.45 to $2.54/kg a year earlier. WorldACD revised week 42 to $3.22 from the $3.23 we showed last week (WorldACD week 43 report). Spot rose 7% from Europe, 6% from Asia Pacific and 5% from Central and South America (WorldACD week 43). No November 2 Baltic print was visible when we checked.

Indicative lane pricing

These are indicative spot benchmarks from public sources. Providers measure differently and over different periods, so treat them as a guide and get a real quote for your shipment. A blank cell means the source doesn't publish that figure, and "not available" means we found no published reading. Percentages marked "calc" are our arithmetic from the published dollar changes. Xeneta has not published a lane rate since its October 1 report, so its rows are carried over.

Against last week: China to North America moved from $6.88 to $7.13/kg ▲, China to Europe from $3.87 to $4.35/kg ▲, and Europe to North America now has a published figure.

Charter market: Asia Pacific to US

Charter rates and individual flights are mostly unpublished. Where a figure isn't published, the table says "not available".

Reported: Atlas Air's chief strategy officer Martin Drew said customers want capacity locked in on long contracts, and that Atlas has "a pipeline today of business that is tens of aircraft, and we can't service that demand." DSV's head of global airfreight Achim Martinka said ad hoc capacity costs more than base-load contract space, and that DSV's own ACMI flights let it switch destinations daily (The Loadstar, Nov 2). Rotate modelled September 777F economics at a positive contribution of $2.55/kg on Asia to North America and a negative $2.12/kg in the reverse direction; these are model estimates, not airline results (The Loadstar, Oct 29). Taiwan forwarders say AI shippers planned their charters around the Double 11, Double 12 and Christmas peaks. They expect AI cargo to fall week by week through November as holiday goods replace it, with total November tonnage similar to October (ETtoday, Nov 2).

Reported: Atlas (5Y) flew 48 of the October Taiwan charters, and Starlux is its ground handling agent in Taiwan (ETtoday, Oct 19). Forwarder counts for October were Crane Worldwide 44 (7 on Amazon's own freighters), Dimerco 16, DHL 13, Kerry TJ 11 on China Airlines freighters, Kuehne+Nagel 9 and NX 4. China Airlines operated 11 and EVA Air 8 (Wellnews, Oct 4; ETtoday, Oct 19). US forwarders won most of the work because most large US buyers purchase FCA and nominate their own air carrier, and forwarders say cancelling a charter still costs about half the hire (ETtoday, Oct 19; Wellnews, Oct 4).

The Boeing 747F and 777F were the main types on the October Taiwan charters (reported, Wellnews). Challenge Group starts a twice-weekly 777F loop from Navi Mumbai through Liège to Chicago Rockford on November 4 (Air Cargo News, Oct 28). Turkish Airlines will lease two 777-300ERSFs from AerCap, converted at Etihad Engineering in Abu Dhabi, with deliveries from March to September 2027 (Air Cargo News, Oct 30). Reported and unconfirmed: delegates at TIACA's Air Cargo Forum heard rumours that Boeing may not use its FAA exemption to keep delivering the current 777F beyond 2027 (The Loadstar, Oct 30). Charter brokers on specific Asia Pacific to US flights this week: not available.

Our read is that if Taiwan charters halve in November, some AI volume will shift to scheduled freighters and belly space just as holiday e-commerce arrives. That would keep transpacific scheduled rates firm even as charter demand eases.

Data center freight charters

Reported: Wellnews says high-performance AI server racks stand about 250 to 260 cm tall, so they fit only on freighters, and they travel with security escorts in Taiwan and armed escorts in the US (Wellnews, Oct 4). FedEx chief executive Raj Subramaniam said FedEx won new airfreight business with an AI data center customer after a more than 40-year, largely parcel relationship; the customer was not named (Air Cargo News, Oct 30). No individual data center charter dated this week was publicly reported with its route, aircraft and customer. WorldACD ties part of the Asia Pacific to US strength to "very strong ongoing demand this year in the US for AI-related high-tech air imports, particularly from Taiwan and parts of Southeast Asia" (WorldACD week 43). Rotate says AI-related air cargo growth is flattening even as AI capex rises (reported, Air Cargo News, Oct 28), while Amazon kept its 2026 cash capex outlook at about $220bn, mainly for AWS and AI infrastructure, and expects 2027 to be "significantly higher" (Ebrun, Oct 30).

E-commerce trending

Direct low-value parcels into the EU are falling, China and Hong Kong to US is flat to slightly up, and bulk import and local-warehouse models are growing. The Commission's preliminary Q3 assessment counts 555.33 million parcels imported into the EU in Q3 2026, more than 60% below the pre-duty trend ▼. Customs still handle at least 5 million direct-to-consumer items a day against under 0.4 million bulk items, and some low-value goods now appear to arrive in bulk with duty paid for EU distribution (European Commission, Oct 30). WorldACD shows the same split in week 43: Hong Kong to EU tonnage ▼ -33% on the year and China to EU ▼ -9%, while China and Hong Kong to US were slightly up ▲ (WorldACD week 43). Reported: Rotate says e-commerce and AI cargo made up roughly two-thirds of air cargo demand growth over the past couple of years, and China's share of global air cargo exports rose from 27% to 34% (The Loadstar, Oct 29). The Loadstar's Miami report heard that e-commerce is down on some lanes but still taking up space (The Loadstar, Oct 30).

From November 1, a €2 Union handling fee applies to each distinct item in B2C goods arriving from outside the EU, at any value. It sits on top of the €3 per-item duty on packages of €150 or less in place since July 1, is non-refundable and does not apply to private gifts (Irish Revenue; European Commission). Ebrun reports that shipments under €150 must also carry product identifier (PID) codes on the customs declaration from November 1 (Ebrun, Nov 2). In the US, a Federal Register search found no new CBP document on de minimis or postal entry between October 23 and November 2 (Federal Register search). The January 20, 2027 compliance date for formal entry of qualifying mail shipments stands (Federal Register, Oct 22), and comments on the low-value shipments proposal still close December 7 (Federal Register, Oct 8). Freightos says USTR has asked for comments on postponing port call fees on China-linked vessels to January, and expects to finish its Section 301 excess capacity investigations by year end (Freightos, Oct 28).

Amazon's Q3 net sales rose 12% to $201.9bn, and it extended the holiday return window to January 31, 2027, a policy it says will now apply every year. Shein launched a fast onboarding plan for semi-managed merchants ahead of its year-end sale, and TikTok Shop US restricted AI-voice and unattended AI livestreams (Ebrun, Nov 1). Temu opened in-warehouse testing labs assessed by Bureau Veritas and plans about $200m of compliance spending in 2026, double 2025 (Ebrun, Oct 29). Reported: ECDB projects cross-border purchases at 15.2% of EU online spending in 2026, up from 10.4% in 2023 (Ebrun, Nov 1).

Industry news

• UPS Q3 revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9bn, with adjusted EPS of $1.69. International revenue grew 7.1% and Supply Chain Solutions 18.2%, and full-year revenue guidance went up to about $92.6bn from $91.2bn (CNBC, Oct 27). FedEx reported third-quarter revenue up 12% to $22.9bn and operating income up 16% to $1.2bn, with international airfreight daily pounds ▲ up 15% on the year (Air Cargo News, Oct 30). After a 15-fold rise in engine moves, FedEx launched a dedicated aircraft engine logistics product (Air Cargo News, Nov 2).
• C.H. Robinson's Q3 air adjusted gross profit rose 22.6% to $43.6m. Within Global Forwarding, air gross profit rose 23.2% on a 28.5% rise per metric ton, while air tonnage ▼ fell 4.0%. Global Forwarding revenue grew 46.1% to $1.1bn (C.H. Robinson, Oct 28).
• Scan Global Logistics agreed to buy Portland-based OIA Global, with about 1,200 staff, 60 offices and $780m of 2025 revenue according to SGL. It is SGL's largest deal, aimed at a top-20 forwarder ranking, and should close in Q1 2027 (Air Cargo News, Oct 29; The Loadstar, Oct 29). AIT Worldwide Logistics agreed to buy Australia's Connor Anderson International, citing cloud computing and AI equipment logistics (Air Cargo News, Nov 2).
• Boeing's World Air Cargo Forecast sees the freighter fleet growing 67%, from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045. That takes 2,930 deliveries (2,000 conversions and 930 new-build) on 3.5% annual demand growth; Airbus forecast 3,460 by 2045 a week earlier (Air Cargo News, Oct 28). Reported: mBa Aviation said lease rates for older 777-300ERs, the prime conversion candidates, have risen $200,000 a month over two years (Air Cargo News, Oct 26).
• WorldACD says global capacity ▼ fell 1% in week 43 but was ▲ 1% above last year, thanks to more freighter services. Middle East and South Asia capacity was 13% below late February, and Riyadh was almost completely closed to international flights (WorldACD week 43). Swiss WorldCargo now sells belly space on a new five-weekly Zurich to Bengaluru A330 service (Air Cargo News, Oct 30).
• Etihad Cargo signed an MoU with the Virginia Economic Development Partnership to develop cargo at Washington Dulles, with data centre and cloud computing among its target sectors (Air Cargo News, Oct 30). Liège and Viracopos in Brazil signed an MoU to attract freighter services (Air Cargo News, Oct 28).
• Reported: at TIACA's Air Cargo Forum in Miami, Mammen Tharakan took over as TIACA director general from Glyn Hughes, who stays part-time until January, and Roos Bakker became chair. Steve Smith, formerly of Airlink, succeeded Brandon Fried at the Airforwarders Association, and United Cargo marked Jan Krems's retirement (The Loadstar, Oct 30). Aerion hired César Penciolelli, formerly head of air procurement at CEVA (Air Cargo News, Oct 29).
• Reported: CargoWise users had customs messaging delays on UK and Japan declarations on October 28, and the backlog cleared the next morning (The Loadstar, Oct 30).

What it means if you ship pallets and crates

Transpacific space is getting tighter into November. Asia to US spot is $7.43/kg and rising, Hong Kong to North America ended October at $8.17/kg, and Freightos saw more gains in daily rates. If Taiwan charters fall by up to half, some AI cargo moves onto scheduled flights just as holiday freight arrives, so book early for anything that has to land before December. Jet fuel eased 2.6% last week, but it still costs 112.8% more than a year ago and Taiwan forwarders expect a surcharge increase by mid-November, so don't plan on lower surcharges yet. China to Europe parcel volumes keep falling as the €2 fee takes effect.

See this week's benchmark rates at /rates, or send a $99 Founding Shipper booking request and we'll book your freight at the carrier's price with no markup.